Management Centre Europe | MCE | Organizational and Management Development - Strategy Execution

Avoiding Common Mistakes in Market Analysis

25 October 2012

Market analysts in the pharmaceutical industry make four common mistakes in sales forecasts of pharma products. MCE's Sergey Davydov, writing in the Russian journal, Remedium, identifies the sources of the errors and suggests ways to avoid them.

Sergey Davydov 

Sergey Davydov

Click here to read the article, in Russian, as it appeared in Remedium's October 2012 edition. (Reprinted here with the generous permission of Remedium, www.remedium.ru)

Below is a summary of the four common errors and ways to avoid them.

Error 1: Our product will be successful, because its proven efficacy is better than other currently existing products.
This type of thinking does not take into account the fact that there are many products without proven efficacy that sell very well. Likewise, there are products with proven efficacy that do not sell well. The potential sales success of a product depends on its "perceived value" by customers. The perceived value is the result of several factors, including: good positioning, aggressive promotion, availability for purchase and others. Medical efficacy is not enough.

Error 2: Our product has no potential in the current market, which is small and growing very slowly.
A more accurate picture of the situation would include the idea that a significant market segment can be created and disappear within one year due to government decisions about the reimbursement for treatment of a particular disease.

Error 3: Our product will be successful because Medicine Opinion Leaders gave it a very high evaluation.
In reality, even a product that receives a perfect evaluation for its medical potential may not generate any reaction from the market. (See Error 1 above.)

Error 4: Our product will be successful because there are many potential buyers.
It does not matter how many potential buyers there are unless they know about your product and perceive it to be more valuable for them than your competitor's product. Potential customers also need to trust the benefits your product promises, have enough money to buy your product and be able to find it easily.
 

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